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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: a6b4b994-37b7-4228-8098-59cc810dec83
· signal: b22dcf5e
· event: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-4.21
pnl %
-14.04%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly agrees to Iranian oil sanction relief in April; NO = no agreement or continued hardline/escalation/talks stall. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Cessation D-collapse: raw D≈8 → collapsed D=4. Incremental only: E=4, D=4 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 37% to 46%) Align
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.57, "size_usd": 30.0, "target_price": 0.6066, "stop_price": 0.49, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.565, "side_price": 0.435, "target_price": 0.6066, "stop_price": 0.49, "entry_price": 0.57, "pnl_pct": -23.68}