Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 16.0pp from 18.5% to 34.5% over 14.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 29.5%, down 5.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026; NO = no such surrender commitment reached by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 18% to 34%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No divergence: price rose alongside pro-deal momentum, but the move rests on process-only signals (Trump’s “very possible/within a week,” claim Iran agreed to “no nuclear weapons,” and Iran “reviewing a new U.S. proposal”) offset by blockers (renewed bombardment threats; Iranian negotiator’s pushback). Critically, there is no ★ DIRECT evidence that Iran agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile; claims of “no nukes” or a long enrichment moratorium do not equal a stockpile-surrender commitment under typical resolution criteria. Process can justify a 5–15pp repricing; a 16pp spike likely overshot and the immediate 5pp pullback is consistent with partial mean reversion.

Kill switches:
- Joint U.S.–Iran announcement of a framework explicitly stating Iran will surrender/ship out its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026.
- IAEA or Iran’s AEOI publicly confirms Iran will transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to third-country/IAEA custody under a signed deal.
- Publication/leak of a draft agreement text that includes explicit stockpile-surrender terms with on-record confirmation from both sides.
- Iran begins physical transfer of enriched uranium out of the country with IAEA verification and U.S. sanctions relief tied to that step.
- Iran’s cabinet/parliament formally approves an agreement that includes surrender of the enriched uranium stockpile.