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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: a13f4cba-bebd-4b1c-9bf6-87e1d061f54e
· signal: 2bc1faff
· event: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+2.92
pnl %
+11.27%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026; NO = no such surrender commitment reached by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 18% to 34%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No divergence
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 36 | 0.7100 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 36 | 0.7900 | 0.7900 → 0.7900 (1 lvl) | TP | $+2.92 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The confirmation of Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, represents a significant development that could impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 71.97 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T21:59 [english.news.cn] Egypt, Syria discuss regional escalation, U.S.-Iranian negotiations
- 2026-05-03T22:21 [CNA] Trump calls Iran talks 'very positive,' US to 'guide' ships through Hormuz
- 2026-05-03T23:20 [Asian News Interna] Trump says US in "very positive discussions" with Iran as negotiations continue
- 2026-05-03T23:23 [The Santa Barbara ] Morro Bay Offshore Wind Project Dead in Water After Company Ends Lease
- 2026-05-04T02:47 [Arutz Sheva Israel] Witkoff: US in active talks with Iran to end war
- 2026-05-04T05:09 [Crypto Briefing] UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
- 2026-05-04T09:00 [CCN - Capital & Ce] CLARITY Act Revived? Coinbase Backs Senate Deal on Stablecoin Rewards
- 2026-05-04T11:48 [وكاله عمون الاخبار] Ammonnews : Jordan, Lebanon and Syria reach gas exchange agreement
- 2026-05-04T12:06 [protothemanews.com] The thoughts of K.M., the meetings at M.M. and September 27 as a possible election date, the meetings with MPs and the preliminary investigation that will not take place - Alexis is better at swearing... - ProtoThema English
- 2026-05-04T12:15 [Jordan Times] Jordan, Syria, Lebanon announce gas supply exchange agreement
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The confirmation of Iran's agreement to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, represents a significant development that could impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 71.97 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-03T21:59 [english.news.cn] Egypt, Syria discuss regional escalation, U.S.-Iranian negotiations
- 2026-05-03T22:21 [CNA] Trump calls Iran talks 'very positive,' US to 'guide' ships through Hormuz
- 2026-05-03T23:20 [Asian News Interna] Trump says US in "very positive discussions" with Iran as negotiations continue
- 2026-05-03T23:23 [The Santa Barbara ] Morro Bay Offshore Wind Project Dead in Water After Company Ends Lease
- 2026-05-04T02:47 [Arutz Sheva Israel] Witkoff: US in active talks with Iran to end war
- 2026-05-04T05:09 [Crypto Briefing] UKMTO warns of increased naval activity in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tensions
- 2026-05-04T09:00 [CCN - Capital & Ce] CLARITY Act Revived? Coinbase Backs Senate Deal on Stablecoin Rewards
- 2026-05-04T11:48 [وكاله عمون الاخبار] Ammonnews : Jordan, Lebanon and Syria reach gas exchange agreement
- 2026-05-04T12:06 [protothemanews.com] The thoughts of K.M., the meetings at M.M. and September 27 as a possible election date, the meetings with MPs and the preliminary investigation that will not take place - Alexis is better at swearing... - ProtoThema English
- 2026-05-04T12:15 [Jordan Times] Jordan, Syria, Lebanon announce gas supply exchange agreement
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by a set date introduces new, concrete details that could significantly impact market sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by a set date introduces new, concrete details that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete commitment that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headline about Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, introduces a specific commitment that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (3 items · score 1.41 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-07T00:22 [Social News XYZ] 'They want to make a deal badly': Trump says Iran talks made progress
- 2026-05-07T00:57 [Yahoo] What to know about potential US-Iran agreement
- 2026-05-07T02:07 [OilPrice.com] Oil Prices Edge Higher as Iran Deal Doubts Resurface | OilPrice.com
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender the enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender the enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete commitment that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete commitment that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete commitment that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a potential acceleration and specific venue for the U.S.-Iran deal, which could impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (9 items · score 3.85 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-07T07:53 [english.news.cn] Pakistan expects U.S.-Iran agreement "sooner rather than later"
- 2026-05-07T08:00 [Mr TopStep] PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 May: ASX jumps as miners rally on gold | South Korea surpasses Canada as world's seventh-largest stock market | Hawk Resources Signs Agreement for Mineral Exploration at Olympus Scandium Project | - Opening Print
- 2026-05-07T08:01 [Pakistan Observer] Islamabad may host US-Iran delegations next week as peace deal expected soon - Pakistan Observer
- 2026-05-07T08:04 [Trend] Iran signals readiness to resume U.S. talks via Pakistan mediation
- 2026-05-07T08:24 [24 News HD] FO says any US-Iran agreement In Pakistan would be an honour
- 2026-05-07T08:28 [News.az] Oil drops on hopes of Iran-US deal over Hormuz | News.az
- 2026-05-07T08:29 [Cedar News Newspap] Pakistan Says It Does Not Know Venue of Possible US-Iran Deal Signing, But Would Be Honored to Host It | Cedar News
- 2026-05-07T08:32 [Cedar News Newspap] WSJ: U.S. Insists on Inspections of Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Tough Conditions in Any Deal | Cedar News
- 2026-05-07T08:44 [International Busi] UFO Files Delivered for Public Release, FBI Director Kash Patel Confirms -- Here's What to Expect
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant development with a specific timeline for Iran's uranium surrender, which could impact market sentiment and trading positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 1.77 )
- 2026-05-07T07:31 [The Namibian] NFA looks at agreement with Pakistan
- 2026-05-07T08:45 [Al-Manar TV Lebano] Pakistan Voices Optimism on US-Iran Talks, Offers to Host Agreement Signing - Al-Manar TV Lebanon
- 2026-05-07T08:47 [Blockonomi] Crude Oil Tumbles Over 2% as U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement Nears Completion - Blockonomi
- 2026-05-07T09:11 [خبرگزاری صدای افغا] Islamabad: We are optimistic about reaching an agreement between Tehran and Washington | AVA
- 2026-05-07T09:18 [Asian News Interna] Iran's President Pezeshkian accuses US of 'stabbing from behind' during talks with French President Macron
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender the enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information that changes the existing narrative about a potential US-Iran deal.
evidence news (3 items · score 1.34 )
- 2026-05-07T01:31 [KTAR News] Wall Street inches higher, oil prices falls in tenuous peace between Iran and US - KTAR.com
- 2026-05-07T11:54 [bankingnews.gr] Brutal backstage maneuvers: Scenarios for a US-Iran deal involving Hormuz opening and lifting of naval blockade - Trump at an impasse, searching for victory
- 2026-05-07T12:55 [The Jerusalem Post] Why Israel fears a US-Iran deal could leave Tehran's nuclear threat intact - opinion
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce specific scenarios and plans for negotiations that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (5 items · score 2.12 )
- 2026-05-07T01:31 [KTAR News] Wall Street inches higher, oil prices falls in tenuous peace between Iran and US - KTAR.com
- 2026-05-07T11:04 [protothemanews.com] A three-stage plan is being studied by the US and Iran: Temporary agreement on a cessation of war and 30-day nuclear negotiations - ProtoThema English
- 2026-05-07T11:53 [BizWatchNigeria.Ng] Oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks leave markets on edge
- 2026-05-07T11:54 [bankingnews.gr] Brutal backstage maneuvers: Scenarios for a US-Iran deal involving Hormuz opening and lifting of naval blockade - Trump at an impasse, searching for victory
- 2026-05-07T12:55 [The Jerusalem Post] Why Israel fears a US-Iran deal could leave Tehran's nuclear threat intact - opinion
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender enriched uranium by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete commitment that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The specific agreement to surrender the enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, represents a concrete development that could significantly impact market perceptions and trading strategies.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information about the Iran deal and merely reflect ongoing market sentiment and related geopolitical discussions.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.58 )
- 2026-05-07T15:55 [LatestLY] US Stocks Hover Near Records as Oil Slides on Hopes of an Iran Deal | LatestLY
- 2026-05-07T16:02 [The Siasat Daily] Lebanon, Israel to hold new talks in Washington next week
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.71, "size_usd": 25.89, "target_price": 0.784, "stop_price": 0.626, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.2, "yes_ask": 0.21, "yes_mid": 0.205, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.79, "walk_top_size": 434.8, "walk_filled_shares": 36.46, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.79, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.79, "side_bid": 0.79, "side_mid": 0.795, "fill_price": 0.79, "fill_shares": 36.46, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 36.46, "target_price": 0.784, "stop_price": 0.626, "entry_price": 0.71, "original_size_shares": 36.46478873239437, "fill_pnl_pct": 11.27, "fill_pnl_usd": 2.9172, "pnl_pct_mid": 11.97, "pnl_pct_top": 11.27, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.6, "mfe_drift_pp": 8.0, "current_drift_pp": 8.0, "hours_held": 19.64, "fill_id": "f16abfb7-7856-4482-a96e-8baa806bdf1b"}