← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 9265549f-27e1-4ddb-9e8a-97b404a2c473
· signal: 72c45907
· event: Starmer out by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+27.78
pnl %
+11.11%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSE | 556 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 → 0.5000 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+27.78 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines emphasize an escalation in the calls for Starmer's resignation and his struggle for survival, indicating a worsening situation that could impact trader sentiment.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.5 shares=555.5555555555555 pnl=$27.7778
evidence news (10 items · score 41.74 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-09T18:11 [News24] 'Mojtaba Khamenei active behind the scenes': US intel report confirms Iran Supreme Leader alive, shaping war strategy from...; what this means for US-Iran negotiations? - News24 World
- 2026-05-10T03:41 [i24NEWS English] US Rubio, Witkoff meet with Qatari PM in Miami amid push for Iran war ceasefire deal
- 2026-05-10T07:00 [The NEN - North Ed] Last Chance Saloon? Starmer turns to old guard following election disaster
- 2026-05-10T07:14 [ABNA English] Iran's Vatican Envoy: Pope-Rubio Meeting Aims to Contain Deepening U.S.-Vatican Rift
- 2026-05-10T13:07 [Financial Times] Starmer faces fight for survival as calls to resign escalate - Financial Times
- 2026-05-10T13:07 [Financial Times] Starmer faces fight for survival as calls to resign escalate - Financial Times
- 2026-05-10T13:07 [Financial Times] Starmer faces fight for survival as calls to resign escalate - Financial Times
- 2026-05-10T13:07 [Financial Times Ne] Starmer grabs chance to fight for survival as calls to resign escalate
- 2026-05-10T14:27 [see.news] US Officials Meet Qatari PM in Miami to Advance US-Iran Peace Negotiations | Sada Elbalad
- 2026-05-10T14:58 [DNyuz] Starmer Greets Calls to Resign With a Simple Answer. No.
event timeline
BACKFILL_FROM_DEDUP_BUG
{"pipeline_run_id": "dbec7f3a-c278-4de2-98fe-bd53b0ac004f", "reason": "event_dedup self-skip bug retro-fix", "sim_outcome": "OPEN", "sim_exit_price": null, "sim_pnl_usd": null, "peak_no_bid": 0.48, "trough_no_bid": 0.43999999999999995}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_mid": 0.495, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.5, "walk_top_size": 605.5, "walk_filled_shares": 555.56, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.5, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.5, "side_bid": 0.5, "side_mid": 0.505, "fill_price": 0.5, "fill_shares": 555.56, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 555.56, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[d0cdad92] entry=/ new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.45, "original_size_shares": 555.5555555555555, "fill_id": "55ff80a4-d2e7-456b-b489-cccda8631fb0"}
BACKFILL_MINUTE_RESIM
{"source": "polymarket_prices_history_fidelity_1", "old_status": "CLOSED", "new_status": "OPEN", "old_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "new_exit_reason": null, "old_pnl": 27.7778, "new_pnl": null, "half_spread_used": 0.0050000000000000044, "n_mid_points": 110}
RESTORE_AFTER_RESIM_OVERWRITE
{"reason": "Re-sim script wrongly overwrote a live VERDICT_FLIP exit; restored from position_fills+position_reevaluations records.", "restored_pnl": 27.77777777777777, "restored_exit_ts": "2026-05-12T15:20:59.922799+00:00", "restored_exit_price": 0.5}