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Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

will-tulsi-gabbard-leave-the-trump-administration-before-2027 · Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? · category: Politics, Trump · resolves
run_id: e7cf21e0-4516-4914-b766-c6c1a6e4217c · started · status completed · plan_emitted
signal detected

detect_reversal

● executed
direction
DOWN
current / peak
57.5% / 61.5%
move_start
53.0%
reversal
+4.0pp
move size / hours
8.5pp / 3.5h
shape
steady
72h range
52.5%—61.5% (Δ9.0pp)
since peak
0.5h

Price rose 8.5pp from 53.0% to 61.5% over 3.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 57.5%, down 4.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 75 → 2 quality: HIGH tokens: 14600
AI verdict

Prompt-MR · misprice analysis

● executed
OVERPRICED conviction: HIGH opportunity: SMALL action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v4 · 12624 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = Gabbard leaves the Trump administration before 2027; NO = she remains in office through 2026. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 53% to 62%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No ★ DIRECT news indicates resignation, firing, health issues, or a new role; the cited items (“launches investigation into US-funded biolabs”) are regular job activity and do not satisfy departure criteria. With zero E/D signals and an 8.5pp spike (no search warning), this looks flow-driven rather than resolution-driven, so the rise is unjustified and should mean-revert.
rule audit

audit_gate

● executed
ALL