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● OPEN · BUY_NO
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: b8600da6-7c38-49c3-bf5d-7dabfdcf1747
· signal: b4db7283
· event: Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
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target
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stop
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exit
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size
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pnl $
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pnl %
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decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Gabbard leaves the Trump administration before 2027; NO = she remains in office through 2026. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 53% to 62%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No ★ DIRECT news indicates resignation, firing, hea
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 36 | 0.4300 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on Labour Party dynamics and do not relate to Tulsi Gabbard or the Trump administration.
evidence news (10 items · score 41.12 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T07:17 [WSLS] Starmer pledges to prove his doubters wrong but faces a wave of resignation calls - WSLS
- 2026-05-11T11:23 [The Guardian] Catherine West backs down from Starmer challenge but urges him to go by September - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T13:24 [Globes] Microsoft Israel chief leaves amid ethical controversy
- 2026-05-11T17:12 [The Guardian] Starmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quit - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T17:12 [The Guardian] Starmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quit - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T17:12 [The Guardian] Starmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quit - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T17:19 [Daily Echo Sport] 2 Labour MPs quit as ministerial aides and call for Keir Starmer to resign
- 2026-05-11T17:22 [accrington] More than 50 Labour MPs call for Starmer's resignation
- 2026-05-11T17:24 [JOE.co.uk] Two Labour MPs quit ministerial aide roles and call for Starmer resignation
- 2026-05-11T17:24 [The Herald] Government aide quits as scores of MPs call for Keir Starmer's resignation
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on Labour Party dynamics and do not relate to Tulsi Gabbard or the Trump administration.
evidence news (10 items · score 41.12 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T07:17 [WSLS] Starmer pledges to prove his doubters wrong but faces a wave of resignation calls - WSLS
- 2026-05-11T11:23 [The Guardian] Catherine West backs down from Starmer challenge but urges him to go by September - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T13:24 [Globes] Microsoft Israel chief leaves amid ethical controversy
- 2026-05-11T17:12 [The Guardian] Starmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quit - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T17:12 [The Guardian] Starmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quit - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T17:12 [The Guardian] Starmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quit - The Guardian
- 2026-05-11T17:19 [Daily Echo Sport] 2 Labour MPs quit as ministerial aides and call for Keir Starmer to resign
- 2026-05-11T17:22 [accrington] More than 50 Labour MPs call for Starmer's resignation
- 2026-05-11T17:24 [JOE.co.uk] Two Labour MPs quit ministerial aide roles and call for Starmer resignation
- 2026-05-11T17:24 [The Herald] Government aide quits as scores of MPs call for Keir Starmer's resignation
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs without introducing new information that would impact her position in the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines are unrelated to Tulsi Gabbard or the Trump administration, focusing instead on Labour Party dynamics.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.64 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T16:58 [Time Magazine] Defiant Starmer Says He Will Not Resign as Dozens in His Own Party Urge Him to Step Down - Time Magazine
- 2026-05-13T13:54 [BBC] How could Labour MPs force a leadership contest and how would it work? - BBC
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs, which was already known and does not change the information picture regarding her position in the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs, which was already known and does not change the information picture regarding her potential departure from the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs, which was already known and does not change the information picture regarding her potential departure from the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines about Starmer do not relate to Tulsi Gabbard or the Trump administration, thus they do not change the information picture.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.32 )
- 2026-05-11T16:58 [Time Magazine] Defiant Starmer Says He Will Not Resign as Dozens in His Own Party Urge Him to Step Down - Time Magazine
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs, which was already known and does not change the information picture regarding her potential departure from the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs without introducing new information that would impact her position in the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on a local campaign announcement unrelated to Tulsi Gabbard's position or actions in the Trump administration.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.26 )
- 2026-05-13T21:28 [Florida Politics -] Chris Nocco officially announces SD 21 campaign following Ed Hooper's resignation letter
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Gabbard's investigation without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into US-funded biolabs, which was already known and does not change the information picture regarding her potential departure from the Trump administration.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines are focused on UK political events and do not relate to Tulsi Gabbard or her position in the Trump administration.
evidence news (4 items · score 1.01 )
- 2026-05-11T16:58 [Time Magazine] Defiant Starmer Says He Will Not Resign as Dozens in His Own Party Urge Him to Step Down - Time Magazine
- 2026-05-14T12:12 [Daily Record] Wes Streeting resigns to force leadership contest against Keir Starmer
- 2026-05-14T12:14 [Irish Independent] Wes Streeting resigns from Starmer's cabinet amid leadership challenge: 'It's clear you won't lead Labour into next general election'
- 2026-05-14T12:42 [The Herald] Wes Streeting quits as Health Secretary paving way for Labour leadership contest
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Gabbard's investigation into biolabs, which was already known and does not change the information picture regarding her position in the Trump administration.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.43, "size_usd": 15.63, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.18, "broker": "paper"}