Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 20.5% to 27.5% over 9.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 25.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 4.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES=the U.S. conducts a ground invasion/incursion of Iran before 2027; NO=no such U.S. invasion. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=1 (talks stall as Trump rejects Iran’s response), D=3 (U.S. defensive deployments to protect shipping; U.S.-China talks scheduled on Iran; Iran submits a formal counterproposal), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 28%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
Logical Divergence: price rose while de-escalatory/defensive signals dominated; no Strong Divergence. No ★ DIRECT evidence of U.S. invasion planning (no U.S. ultimatum with timeline for invasion, no evacuations, no ground-force movements, no U.S. officials openly considering invasion); rhetoric centers on rejecting a ceasefire and potential airstrikes, plus defensive naval moves, which fail the “invade Iran” settlement threshold. A 7pp spike on process-only escalation is an overreaction for an invasion market and should partially mean-revert.