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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 461315fd-bd36-4a41-8496-2f0a6d65912d
· signal: e5858f03
· event: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-3.38
pnl %
-1.35%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=the U.S. conducts a ground invasion/incursion of Iran before 2027; NO=no such U.S. invasion. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=1 (talks stall as Trump rejects Iran’s response), D=3 (U.S. defensive deployments to protect shipping; U.S.-China talks scheduled on Iran; Iran submits a formal counterproposal), L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 338 | 0.7400 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 338 | 0.7300 | 0.7300 → 0.7300 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-3.38 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a significant escalation in military actions and tensions, suggesting a shift in the situation that could impact the likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Iran.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (10 items · score 61.22 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-08T03:05 [idnfinancials.com] Trump bombs Iran as Middle East peace prospects grow dimmer
- 2026-05-08T03:15 [WBAL] UAE reports drone and missile attack as Iran war ceasefire is challenged
- 2026-05-08T03:17 [Countercurrents] How the U.S. and U.K. Destroyed Democracy in Iran | Countercurrents
- 2026-05-08T03:21 [World Socialist] US resumes strikes on Iran, as Trump threatens further escalation
- 2026-05-08T03:26 [The Independent] Iran war live: Trump says ceasefire still in place despite trading strikes in Hormuz
- 2026-05-08T03:44 [NDTV] US-Iran War News LIVE Updates: US-Iran Ceasefire Under Threat After Hormuz Strikes, Trump Calls It "Love Tap"
- 2026-05-08T03:45 [AOL.com] Trump: Iran strikes are just a love tap - AOL
- 2026-05-08T03:56 [The Tribune] US military strikes Iran's Qesham Port, Bandar Abbas: Report - The Tribune
- 2026-05-08T04:00 [Financial World] Trump faces narrowing options as Iran war strains markets
- 2026-05-08T04:01 [Trade Arabia] US hits Iran sites after attacks on American warships; Truce stays says Trump
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Trump's rejection of Iran's proposals and ongoing tensions without introducing new developments or changes in strategy.
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce fresh warnings from Iran and new proposals for peace, indicating escalating tensions and potential shifts in the conflict dynamics.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (8 items · score 3.25 )
- 2026-05-11T00:00 [Antiwar.com Origin] Iran Has Nuclear Energy, Not Nuclear Weapons - Antiwar.com
- 2026-05-11T01:15 [PressTV] US munitions 'shockingly' depleted by Iran war, US Senator warns
- 2026-05-11T02:07 [Zee News] Iran's new draft proposal for peace with America: Demands ending war, removing sanctions, lifting naval blockade
- 2026-05-11T02:26 [The Indian Express] 'Compensation for war damages': Iran sets terms for ending conflict, reports say
- 2026-05-11T02:30 [Dawn] US allies face drone attacks as Iran warns 'restraint is over'
- 2026-05-11T03:15 [Times of Oman] Iran warns of
- 2026-05-11T03:56 [BW Businessworld] Iran Issues Fresh Warning Over British, French Naval Presence In Strait Of Hormuz - BW Businessworld
- 2026-05-11T04:05 [ABNA English] Iran Warns France, UK Against Deploying Warships to Strait of Hormuz
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Trump's rejection of Iran's proposals and ongoing tensions without introducing new developments or changes in strategy.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Trump's rejection of Iran's proposals and ongoing tensions without introducing new developments or changes in strategy.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Trump's rejection of Iran's proposals and ongoing tensions without introducing new developments or insights.
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate fresh escalations and potential military actions that could significantly impact U.S.-Iran relations and the likelihood of an invasion.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (6 items · score 2.08 )
- 2026-05-11T06:55 [News Directory 3] US allies face drone attacks as Iran warns 'restraint is over' - Dawn - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-11T07:17 [News Directory 3] US-Iran Conflict: Stability or New Escalation? - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-11T07:27 [Hindustan Times] Iran has a body to oversee vessels passing Strait of Hormuz, charge toll: What does it mean?
- 2026-05-11T07:40 [Sputnik Internatio] Fresh Strikes on Iran Aimed at Forcing Deal on US Terms -- Expert
- 2026-05-11T07:47 [Insurance Journal] Seoul Condemns Strike on Vessel in Strait of Hormuz as Probe Continues
- 2026-05-11T07:52 [mint] Seoul Condemns Strike on Vessel in Hormuz as Probe Continues | Today News
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate fresh escalations and military actions that could significantly impact U.S.-Iran relations and the likelihood of an invasion.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
evidence news (7 items · score 2.39 )
- 2026-05-11T06:55 [News Directory 3] US allies face drone attacks as Iran warns 'restraint is over' - Dawn - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-11T07:17 [News Directory 3] US-Iran Conflict: Stability or New Escalation? - News Directory 3
- 2026-05-11T07:27 [Hindustan Times] Iran has a body to oversee vessels passing Strait of Hormuz, charge toll: What does it mean?
- 2026-05-11T07:40 [Sputnik Internatio] Fresh Strikes on Iran Aimed at Forcing Deal on US Terms -- Expert
- 2026-05-11T07:47 [Insurance Journal] Seoul Condemns Strike on Vessel in Strait of Hormuz as Probe Continues
- 2026-05-11T07:52 [mint] Seoul Condemns Strike on Vessel in Hormuz as Probe Continues | Today News
- 2026-05-11T08:20 [TFIGlobal] "Dead Man's Switch" After Iran's Supreme Leader Assassination, North Korea Updates Constitution "Automatic and Immediate Nuclear Strike" if Kim Jong-un is Killed by Foreign Powers
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Trump's rejection of Iran's proposals and ongoing tensions without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines primarily reflect ongoing sentiments and analyses rather than introducing new information that would change the likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Iran.
evidence news (3 items · score 1.15 )
- 2026-05-11T09:32 [경향신문] As the war with Iran drags on, Gulf countries see their 'post-oil vision' wobble···"Long-term damage will continue even after the conflict ends"
- 2026-05-11T09:34 [NDTV] China Is Mining The Iran War For Lessons On US Military Power
- 2026-05-11T09:40 [Modern Diplomacy] Dollar Stability Amid Iran War Uncertainty Reflects Fragile Global Risk Sentiment and Diverging Policy Expectations
CUMULATIVE
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines introduce significant developments regarding Iran's military posture and international relations that could impact U.S. strategic decisions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.73 shares=337.83783783783787 pnl=$-3.3784
evidence news (7 items · score 3.19 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-11T10:44 [Al Jazeera Online] Former Qatar PM: Netanyahu using Iran war to reshape Middle East
- 2026-05-11T10:46 [The News] Stark Iran warning issued - HMS Dragon 'escalation' to be met with 'immediate' action
- 2026-05-11T10:47 [France 24] Russia, China and Iran: What do Beijing and Moscow want to gain from conflict?
- 2026-05-11T11:04 [Free Press Kashmir] Drones hit Gulf vessels as Iran warns US against further attacks
- 2026-05-11T11:21 [Asianet News Netwo] "Major Diplomatic Asset" - Iran Warns Of Consequences If FIFA World Cup Participation Is Blocked By Hosts USA
- 2026-05-11T11:30 [Bloomberg Business] The Iran War Made the North Korea Problem Worse
- 2026-05-11T11:35 [bankingnews.gr] Shock for Trump as Iran
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.74, "size_usd": 250.0, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.49, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.26, "yes_ask": 0.27, "yes_mid": 0.265, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.73, "walk_top_size": 5965.47, "walk_filled_shares": 337.84, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.73, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.73, "side_bid": 0.73, "side_mid": 0.735, "fill_price": 0.73, "fill_shares": 337.84, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 337.84, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[efdfd88f] entry=NO/MEDIUM new=OMIT/MEDIUM", "entry_price": 0.74, "original_size_shares": 337.83783783783787, "fill_id": "61e5c007-6bde-433c-80f6-47b92dcf7229"}