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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? ↗
us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026
· US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? · category: Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Vance
· resolves
run_id: edbd6dd0-e53a-4ec3-a18c-57ede93be9e6
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· MFE_GIVEBACK
·
+$0.00
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
70.0% / 73.0%
move_start
60.8%
reversal
+3.0pp
move size / hours
12.2pp / 7.0h
shape
spike
72h range
59.5%—73.0% (Δ13.5pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price rose 12.2pp from 60.8% to 73.0% over 7.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 70.0%, down 3.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 338 → 4
quality: HIGH
tokens: 14810
article_thesis
direct
Iran offers new proposal amid stalled US peace talks
article_thesis
direct
Iran sends fresh peace proposal in US negotiations
article_thesis
noise
Exclusive: Here's why Trump's envoys aren't going to Ukraine
article_thesis
direct
Iran submits revised proposal to Pakistan for negotiations with US
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 12972 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a direct US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by the deadline; NO = no direct meeting (only indirect/mediated exchanges or nothing). Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 61% to 73%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong Divergence; news is modestly supportive but process-only: Iran “sent/revised a proposal via Pakistani mediators” (three headlines, one underlying event), which is not a direct US–Iran meeting scheduled or held and thus does not satisfy resolution criteria. A 12.2pp spike on a single mediated-proposal update (no meeting announced/confirmed) is larger than justified by the news; expect partial reversion from the overshoot.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL