← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: c7bec762-432b-4970-9fa5-bad967c33c3d
· signal: 7dc663cb
· event: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+0.00
pnl %
+0.00%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = a direct US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by the deadline; NO = no direct meeting (only indirect/mediated exchanges or nothing). Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 61% to 73%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed No Strong
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 60 | 0.3000 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 60 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 → 0.3000 (1 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate ongoing proposals and negotiations without introducing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate existing information about Iran's proposals without introducing new developments or insights.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing stalled negotiations without providing new information or developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate Iran's ongoing proposals without introducing new information or developments.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.3, "size_usd": 18.0, "target_price": 0.382, "stop_price": 0.208, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.68, "yes_ask": 0.7, "yes_mid": 0.69, "yes_spread_pp": 2.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.3, "walk_top_size": 5052.92, "walk_filled_shares": 60.0, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.3, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.3, "side_bid": 0.3, "side_mid": 0.31, "fill_price": 0.3, "fill_shares": 60.0, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 60.0, "target_price": 0.382, "stop_price": 0.208, "entry_price": 0.3, "original_size_shares": 60.0, "fill_pnl_pct": 0.0, "fill_pnl_usd": 0.0, "pnl_pct_mid": 3.33, "pnl_pct_top": 0.0, "trigger_vs_level_pp": 0.0, "mfe_drift_pp": 2.0, "current_drift_pp": 0.0, "hours_held": 15.38, "fill_id": "ee185882-189c-441c-92f1-fb0637ad650e"}