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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? ↗
will-mary-peltola-win-the-alaska-senate-race-in-2026
· Alaska Senate Election Winner · category: Alaska Midterm, Elections, Midterms, Politics, Senate midterms, US Election
· resolves
run_id: f7166934-6533-4100-aa06-36e591432487
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· IDLE_NEVER_PROFITABLE
·
−$0.32
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
58.5% / 56.5%
move_start
66.9%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
10.4pp / 89.5h
shape
spike
72h range
56.5%—67.0% (Δ10.5pp)
since peak
7.5h
Price fell 10.4pp from 66.9% to 56.5% over 89.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 58.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 7.5h after the trough.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 36 → 5
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5172
gnews_thesis
relevant
Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls - The New York Times
article_antithesis
relevant
Senate Republican accused of trying to 'cover his tracks' as he falls behind in polls
article_precursor
direct
Mary Peltola Unveils Plan to Tackle Alaska's Affordability Crisis in U.S. Senate Campaign
article_thesis
direct
Peltola unveils 'affordability' campaign as she challenges incumbent U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Polls show Democrats leading in Alaska and New Hampshire Senate races - msn.com
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
UNDERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
action: YES
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.8 · 14439 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES=Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate race; NO=She loses. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 67% to 56%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline. No Logical or Strong Divergence exists because there are no incremental signals; moreover, the available headlines are campaign-process/rhetoric (policy unveil, generic “latest polls” page) and do not include any ★ DIRECT election signals like credible new polling showing Peltola trailing, a major opponent endorsement, or a scandal/gaffe harming Peltola that would justify a 10pp swing. With zero verified E/D drivers, an 89.5h, ~10pp slide on an election-outcome market (theta-neutral) is classic flow/overreaction; 10pp+ drops on process-only news are typically overshoots. Therefore the fall was not justified by news, and the price should revert upward.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL