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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: d5958a69-7819-4c0e-9d6a-3d0d0efed037
· signal: fe9f88b8
· event: Alaska Senate Election Winner
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
IDLE NEVER PROFITABLE
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.32
pnl %
-3.39%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES=Peltola wins the 2026 Alaska Senate race; NO=She loses. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 67% to 56%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — no deadline. No Logical or Strong Divergence exists because there are no incremental signals;
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 16 | 0.5900 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 16 | 0.5700 | 0.5700 → 0.5700 (1 lvl) | IDLE_NEVER_PROFITABLE | $-0.32 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to the Alaska Senate race and does not provide new information about Mary Peltola or her campaign.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.39 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-13T14:43 [NBC News] Nebraska secretary of state loses GOP primary to challenger questioning election security
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to the Alaska Senate race and does not provide new information about Mary Peltola or her campaign.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.38 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-13T14:32 [Yahoo] Nebraska secretary of state loses GOP primary to challenger questioning election security
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
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NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
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stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not provide new information or insights that would change the existing understanding of the race.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.59, "size_usd": 9.57, "target_price": 0.659, "stop_price": 0.511, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_mid": 0.575, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.57, "walk_top_size": 85.51, "walk_filled_shares": 16.22, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.57, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.57, "side_bid": 0.57, "side_mid": 0.575, "fill_price": 0.57, "fill_shares": 16.22, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 16.22, "target_price": 0.659, "stop_price": 0.511, "entry_price": 0.59, "original_size_shares": 16.220338983050848, "fill_pnl_pct": -3.39, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.3244, "pnl_pct_mid": -2.54, "pnl_pct_top": -3.39, "trigger_vs_level_pp": null, "mfe_drift_pp": -1.74, "current_drift_pp": -2.0, "hours_held": 48.04, "fill_id": "d017598e-4d13-4b20-be66-042c3c3b915b"}