← back to pipeline
mr
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? ↗
will-india-strike-pakistan-by-december-31-2026
· India strike on Pakistan by...? · category: Geopolitics, India-Pakistan, Politics, World
· resolves
run_id: fe3d7bd3-709c-4c53-82e5-793d5bc0345c
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
view position ↗
○ closed
· MFE_GIVEBACK
·
−$0.59
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
DOWN
current / peak
25.5% / 27.5%
move_start
20.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
7.0pp / 5.0h
shape
spike
72h range
19.5%—27.5% (Δ8.0pp)
since peak
1.0h
Price rose 7.0pp from 20.5% to 27.5% over 5.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 25.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 273 → 20
quality: HIGH
tokens: 18050
article_thesis
noise
World News | Israel Launches New Strike in Lebanon's Khiam, Yohmor Al-Shaqif Amid Ceasefire Extension | LatestLY
article_thesis
noise
Yogi Adityanath Attacks TMC, Backs CAA in Bengal Campaign
article_antithesis
direct
Trump dents peace talks, but truce may hold
article_antithesis
direct
Will It, Won't It? Trump's Big Move Casts Shadow Over US-Iran Peace Talks
article_antithesis
noise
AJK PM Emphasizes Stable Governance For Sustainable Development - UrduPoint
article_thesis
noise
Pakistan becomes surprise mediator in US-Iran negotiations - ExBulletin
article_thesis
noise
From Conflict To Credibility: Marka-e-Haq Elevates Pakistan's Diplomatic Stature Globally - UrduPoint
article_thesis
noise
Pakistan's rapid turn from pariah to linchpin in Iran peace talks
article_antithesis
noise
US War Secretary Calls Iran Conflict 'A Gift To The World' As Peace Talks With Tehran Linger
article_thesis
direct
India's Indus Reset: From treaty restraint to strategic leverage after Pahalgam terror attack
article_antithesis
noise
Business News | India Real Estate Demand Remains Stable in Q1 Despite Launch Slowdown: Equirus
article_thesis
noise
Psychological Barriers to Attacking Nuclear Facilities Are Eroding as Global Tensions Rise - News Directory 3
article_thesis
noise
Israel takes major step to counter Iran, brings in BARAK MX, can intercept aerial threats like fighter aircraft, its range is...
article_antithesis
noise
Israel, Hezbollah exchange strikes despite ceasefire extension with Lebanon
article_thesis
noise
The Kashmir town trying to win back tourists after a deadly attack
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 14154 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = India conducts a military strike on Pakistan before Dec 31, 2026; NO = no Indian strike by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 28%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical divergence: Yes — price rose without any new verified escalation toward an Indian strike; no Strong Divergence. No ★ DIRECT signals (e.g., Indian deployments toward Pakistan, ultimatums, senior officials “considering” strikes); items like India’s Indus Waters posture (diplomatic pressure), ACLED Kashmir risk analysis, or Israel–Hezbollah exchanges do not satisfy the strike criteria. A 7pp spike on context-only news with zero E/D support is likely flow-driven; expect some reversion from the spike.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL