← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 05870f41-0474-4f76-9e55-c26e2d2dbbfc
· signal: d3ed455a
· event: India strike on Pakistan by...?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● MFE GIVEBACK
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-0.59
pnl %
-4.84%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: HIGH
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: HIGH Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = India conducts a military strike on Pakistan before Dec 31, 2026; NO = no Indian strike by then. Trend is UP, pricing in YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: UP (from 20% to 28%) Alignment: OPPOSITE Theta: DOWN — opposed Logical divergence: Yes — price rose without any new
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 16 | 0.7500 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 16 | 0.7137 | 0.7200 → 0.7137 (2 lvl) | MFE_GIVEBACK | $-0.59 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or military actions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of military action.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or military actions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or the likelihood of a strike.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or military actions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information that significantly alters the existing context of India-Pakistan relations or military actions.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that would significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines do not introduce new information or developments that significantly alter the existing context of India-Pakistan relations.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.75, "size_usd": 12.13, "target_price": 0.785, "stop_price": 0.705, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.05, "yes_ask": 0.99, "yes_mid": 0.52, "yes_spread_pp": 94.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.01, "walk_top_size": 100.0, "walk_filled_shares": 16.17, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.01, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.01, "side_bid": 0.01, "side_mid": 0.48, "fill_price": 0.01, "fill_shares": 16.17, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 16.17, "target_price": 0.785, "stop_price": 0.705, "entry_price": 0.75, "original_size_shares": 16.173333333333336, "fill_pnl_pct": -98.67, "fill_pnl_usd": -11.9683, "pnl_pct_mid": -36.0, "pnl_pct_top": -98.67, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -69.5, "fill_id": "01a7b23e-c297-4eaa-a0f5-55ea40a93935"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.23, "yes_ask": 0.28, "yes_mid": 0.255, "yes_spread_pp": 5.0, "walk_levels_used": 2, "walk_top_fill": 0.72, "walk_top_size": 6.0, "walk_filled_shares": 16.17, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.7137, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.63, "side_bid_top": 0.72, "side_bid": 0.7137, "side_mid": 0.745, "fill_price": 0.7137, "fill_shares": 16.17, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 16.17, "target_price": 0.785, "stop_price": 0.705, "entry_price": 0.75, "original_size_shares": 16.173333333333336, "fill_pnl_pct": -4.84, "fill_pnl_usd": -0.5871, "pnl_pct_mid": -0.67, "pnl_pct_top": -4.0, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -3.63, "mfe_drift_pp": 2.0, "current_drift_pp": -3.63, "hours_held": 210.06, "fill_id": "4ad46f65-5ed6-467b-af7d-69eb9ef633fd"}