← all positions
○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 04fa5e79-c729-44d9-a79f-630335ac83d7
· signal: eba98239
· event: Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● TAKE PROFIT
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+3.32
pnl %
+16.60%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: MEDIUM
broker: paper
MOM DOWN — anchor→trigger: 85.0% → 75.8% over 1h, cusum=-7.381. Days to resolution: 67 days. Theta-bleed is active (deadline < 90 days, trend is DOWN, positive action required for YES), so in the absence of progress, price should drift downward. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing the location or scheduling of a US-Iran diplomatic
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.25, "size_usd": 20.0, "target_price": 0.2915, "stop_price": 0.19, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.6635, "side_price": 0.3365, "exit_price": 0.2915, "target_price": 0.2915, "stop_price": 0.19, "entry_price": 0.25, "size_shares": 80.0, "pnl_pct": 16.6, "pnl_usd": 3.32, "observed_slippage_pp": 4.5}