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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 19124a59-42eb-4461-ab0e-b550af9b8b64
· signal: d1282db8
· event: Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$+18.92
pnl %
+9.68%
decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Burnham secures a path to Westminster and wins the Labour leadership to become PM in 2026; NO = Starmer survives or another successor (not Burnham) becomes PM. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 28% to 39%) Alignment: N/A Theta:
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 310 | 0.6300 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 310 | 0.6910 | 0.6910 → 0.6910 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $+18.92 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on unrelated political races and do not provide any new information regarding Andy Burnham or the Labour leadership situation.
evidence news (10 items · score 16.97 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-09T15:38 [Washington Examine] How the lack of a Trump endorsement has affected the Georgia GOP Senate primary
- 2026-05-09T17:21 [Bangor Daily News] Maine Democrats shelve criticism of national party's Joe Baldacci endorsement
- 2026-05-09T18:28 [Now Georgia] Campaigns enter homestretch as Trump, Obama try to whip up support for Georgia candidates - Now Georgia
- 2026-05-09T20:20 [CBS News] Spencer Pratt talks Los Angeles mayoral campaign, debate performance: Watch the full interview
- 2026-05-09T20:24 [The New York Times] The Race for Congress: Latest 2026 Polls - The New York Times
- 2026-05-09T21:23 [en.brinkwire.com] After providing competitor Karen Bass with incendiary interview video, Spencer Pratt launches a violent tirade against CBS, accusing them of turning his campaign into a farce
- 2026-05-09T23:51 [Kenya Star] Israel built secret base in Iraq to bomb Iran - WSJ
- 2026-05-10T01:00 [The New York Times] The Race for Congress: Latest 2026 Polls - The New York Times
- 2026-05-10T01:36 [Nourish] Israel reportedly builds clandestine Iraqi outpost for Iran campaign
- 2026-05-10T02:43 [Los Angeles Magazi] Karen Bass Skips Final Debate Before LA Primary
HARD_TIER1
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on unrelated political races and do not provide any new information regarding Andy Burnham or the Labour leadership situation.
evidence news (10 items · score 16.97 · tier-1 source)
- 2026-05-09T15:38 [Washington Examine] How the lack of a Trump endorsement has affected the Georgia GOP Senate primary
- 2026-05-09T17:21 [Bangor Daily News] Maine Democrats shelve criticism of national party's Joe Baldacci endorsement
- 2026-05-09T18:28 [Now Georgia] Campaigns enter homestretch as Trump, Obama try to whip up support for Georgia candidates - Now Georgia
- 2026-05-09T20:20 [CBS News] Spencer Pratt talks Los Angeles mayoral campaign, debate performance: Watch the full interview
- 2026-05-09T20:24 [The New York Times] The Race for Congress: Latest 2026 Polls - The New York Times
- 2026-05-09T21:23 [en.brinkwire.com] After providing competitor Karen Bass with incendiary interview video, Spencer Pratt launches a violent tirade against CBS, accusing them of turning his campaign into a farce
- 2026-05-09T23:51 [Kenya Star] Israel built secret base in Iraq to bomb Iran - WSJ
- 2026-05-10T01:00 [The New York Times] The Race for Congress: Latest 2026 Polls - The New York Times
- 2026-05-10T01:36 [Nourish] Israel reportedly builds clandestine Iraqi outpost for Iran campaign
- 2026-05-10T02:43 [Los Angeles Magazi] Karen Bass Skips Final Debate Before LA Primary
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate an escalating leadership crisis for Starmer, suggesting a higher likelihood of a leadership contest, which could directly impact Burnham's chances.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped & exited: fill=0.691 shares=310.22222222222223 pnl=$18.9236
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.63, "size_usd": 195.44, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.38, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
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