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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: 7454032a-3acc-4829-8eef-d153eade9dee
· signal: 398e8449
· event: Colombia Presidential Election
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● STOP LOSS
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-5.51
pnl %
-11.02%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = Paloma Valencia wins the 2026 presidential election; NO = she does not. Trend is DOWN (44% → 38%), pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1 — runoff aggregator shows Cepeda’s edge evaporated/Paloma competitive; D=1 — Fecode endorses Cepeda). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 44% to 38%)
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.402, "size_usd": 50.0, "target_price": 0.4373, "stop_price": 0.3577, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_midpoint": 0.3545, "side_price": 0.3545, "exit_price": 0.3577, "target_price": 0.4373, "stop_price": 0.3577, "entry_price": 0.402, "size_shares": 124.37810945273631, "pnl_pct": -11.02, "pnl_usd": -5.51, "observed_slippage_pp": -0.32}