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○ CLOSED · BUY_YES
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: b5c98e09-48eb-4df5-b6b1-5da157c634a0
· signal: 9db7b018
· event: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason:
● VERDICT FLIP
resolves
prices (BUY_YES frame)
entry
—
target
—
stop
—
exit
—
size
$—
pnl $
$-3.89
pnl %
-2.63%
decision context
direction: UP
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: UNDERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = the billionaire one-time wealth tax qualifies for and passes on the November 2026 California ballot; NO = it doesn’t make the ballot or fails at the ballot. Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: DOWN (from 44% to 34%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEU
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 389 | 0.3800 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 | |
| CLOSE | 389 | 0.3700 | 0.3700 → 0.3700 (1 lvl) | VERDICT_FLIP | $-3.89 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines could provide fresh insights or developments regarding the wealth tax that may influence trader sentiment and market positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ HIGH
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/HIGH
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines could provide fresh insights or developments regarding the wealth tax that may influence trader sentiment and market positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
YES
/ MEDIUM
· UNDERPRICED
verdict held: entry=YES/MEDIUM new=YES/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
→ EXITED
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines could provide fresh insights or developments regarding the wealth tax that may influence trader sentiment and market positions.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ LOW
· UNDERPRICED
flipped & exited: fill=0.37 shares=388.6842105263158 pnl=$-3.8868
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_YES", "entry_price": 0.38, "size_usd": 147.7, "target_price": 0.425, "stop_price": 0.325, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_mid": 0.375, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.37, "walk_top_size": 1063.74, "walk_filled_shares": 388.68, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.37, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.37, "side_bid": 0.37, "side_mid": 0.375, "fill_price": 0.37, "fill_shares": 388.68, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 388.68, "force_exit_reason": "VERDICT_FLIP", "force_exit_notes": "reeval[5da2e986] entry=YES/MEDIUM new=OMIT/LOW", "entry_price": 0.38, "original_size_shares": 388.6842105263158, "fill_id": "660b2267-6d52-4a04-809f-b0f352906d03"}