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● OPEN · BUY_NO
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
· polymarket ↗
position_id: e70f0a90-e9de-48b5-90cb-a562a7f479db
· signal: 916ad156
· event: Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
still open
resolves
prices (BUY_NO frame)
entry
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target
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stop
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exit
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size
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pnl $
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pnl %
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decision context
direction: DOWN
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: LARGE
broker: paper
Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: LARGE Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = no new UK Prime Minister is appointed in 2026; NO = a new PM is appointed in 2026. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-world. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=3). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 22% to 36%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — appointment/leadership outcome market Price rose while fresh news
fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl
| when | type | shares | price | walk top → avg | reason | pnl $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEN | 142 | 0.6700 | — | OPEN | $+0.00 |
re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it
CUMULATIVE
→ FLIPPED (no exit)
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new support for Starmer from over 100 Labour MPs and his defiance in the face of leadership challenges could significantly impact the political landscape and perceptions of stability in the UK.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
OMIT
/ MEDIUM
· FAIR
flipped but exit failed: live_exit_failed: PolyApiException[status_code=400, error_message={'error': 'not enough balance / allowance: the balance is not enough -> balance: 1428570, order amount: 1430000'}]
evidence news (10 items · score 2.70 )
- 2026-05-10T15:01 [Internewscast Jour] Polls Show JD Vance Slightly Outpaces Tim Walz in Perceived Unconventionality Ahead of VP Debate - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-10T23:06 [Benzinga] Global News Hosts Provincewide BC Conservative Leadership Debate on Economy, Energy and Natural Resources
- 2026-05-11T11:05 [Mandatory] Donald Trump Reportedly Fueling Debate Over JD Vance & Marco Rubio
- 2026-05-11T18:19 [KPBS] Riverside County sheriff looks to take California in a different direction if elected governor
- 2026-05-11T21:00 [CNHI News] LWV says candidates decline debate invitations
- 2026-05-11T21:40 [Curated - BLOX Dig] Los Angeles mayoral race debate canceled after no-shows
- 2026-05-12T12:56 [inews.co.uk] Defiant Starmer tells allies he can win a leadership contest
- 2026-05-12T15:14 [Left Foot Forward] Over 100 Labour MPs sign letter backing Keir Starmer and opposing leadership contest - Left Foot Forward: Leading the UK's progressive debate
- 2026-05-12T17:01 [Ventura County Sta] California governor's race tightens as 2 candidates lead crowded field
- 2026-05-12T17:09 [Crypto Briefing] Andy Burnham meets Labour MPs amid Keir Starmer leadership crisis
CUMULATIVE
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new support for Starmer from over 100 Labour MPs and his defiance in the face of leadership challenges could significantly impact the political landscape and perceptions of stability in the UK.
stage2_throttled_E:within_2.0h_AND_trigger_CUMULATIVE_eligible|trigger=CUMULATIVE|last=OMIT/MEDIUM|age=0.288h
evidence news (10 items · score 2.70 )
- 2026-05-10T15:01 [Internewscast Jour] Polls Show JD Vance Slightly Outpaces Tim Walz in Perceived Unconventionality Ahead of VP Debate - Internewscast Journal
- 2026-05-10T23:06 [Benzinga] Global News Hosts Provincewide BC Conservative Leadership Debate on Economy, Energy and Natural Resources
- 2026-05-11T11:05 [Mandatory] Donald Trump Reportedly Fueling Debate Over JD Vance & Marco Rubio
- 2026-05-11T18:19 [KPBS] Riverside County sheriff looks to take California in a different direction if elected governor
- 2026-05-11T21:00 [CNHI News] LWV says candidates decline debate invitations
- 2026-05-11T21:40 [Curated - BLOX Dig] Los Angeles mayoral race debate canceled after no-shows
- 2026-05-12T12:56 [inews.co.uk] Defiant Starmer tells allies he can win a leadership contest
- 2026-05-12T15:14 [Left Foot Forward] Over 100 Labour MPs sign letter backing Keir Starmer and opposing leadership contest - Left Foot Forward: Leading the UK's progressive debate
- 2026-05-12T17:01 [Ventura County Sta] California governor's race tightens as 2 candidates lead crowded field
- 2026-05-12T17:09 [Crypto Briefing] Andy Burnham meets Labour MPs amid Keir Starmer leadership crisis
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could significantly impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the existing market view.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on unrelated political events in the U.S. and do not impact the UK political situation or Starmer's leadership crisis.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.36 )
- 2026-05-13T17:16 [Brigitte Gabriel] Karen Bass keeps lead in LA mayoral race after fiery debate - Conservative Angle
- 2026-05-13T17:33 [Bangor Daily News] Live updates: Maine Republicans hold 1st TV debate featuring Bobby Charles
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headline is unrelated to the UK Prime Minister situation and does not impact the existing political context.
evidence news (1 items · score 0.18 )
- 2026-05-13T18:40 [abc15 Arizona] TONIGHT AT 6: Primary candidates to debate for Superintendent of Public Instruction
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis without introducing new information that would alter the existing market view.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could significantly impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could significantly impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage2_error:analyzer_failed:Request timed out.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could significantly impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage2_error:analyzer_failed:Request timed out.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines focus on a different political race in California and do not provide any new information regarding the UK Prime Minister situation.
evidence news (2 items · score 0.21 )
- 2026-05-13T11:31 [NBC Bay Area] New polling suggests shift in the race for California governor
- 2026-05-14T02:30 [CNHI News] Iowa 2nd District Democratic candidates debate healthcare, immigration
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the existing market view.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the existing market view.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the existing market view.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
YES_MATERIAL
YES_MATERIAL: The new headlines indicate a deepening political crisis and potential leadership challenges for Starmer, which could impact the timeline for appointing a new Prime Minister.
stage 2 (0.0000$)
NO
/ MEDIUM
· OVERPRICED
verdict held: entry=NO/MEDIUM new=NO/MEDIUM
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$)
NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the ongoing leadership crisis and challenges faced by Starmer without introducing new information that would alter the market's outlook.
event timeline
ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.67, "size_usd": 94.82, "target_price": 0.99, "stop_price": 0.42, "broker": "paper"}