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○ CLOSED · BUY_NO

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · polymarket ↗
position_id: eb664129-0861-48b2-9a7f-3fafbeaa3157 · signal: 82e9f61b · event: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
entered
signal:
exited
reason: IDLE TIME CAPPED
resolves

prices (BUY_NO frame)

entry
target
stop
exit
size
$—
pnl $
$+4.55
pnl %
+1.82%

decision context

direction: DOWN conviction: MEDIUM opportunity: SMALL broker: paper

Assessment: OVERPRICED Conviction: MEDIUM Size: SMALL Reasoning: Semantic Polarity: YES = the one‑time billionaire wealth tax qualifies, appears on the 2026 ballot, and is approved by voters; NO = it fails to qualify or is rejected by voters. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES‑World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=1 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 38% to 48%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL

fills ledger one row per OPEN / partial close / full close · partials accumulate into pnl

when type shares price walk top → avg reason pnl $
OPEN 455 0.5500 OPEN $+0.00
CLOSE 455 0.5600 0.5600 → 0.5600 (1 lvl) IDLE_TIME_CAPPED $+4.55

re-evaluation history Phase 2 trigger detector + Stage 1 cheap filter + Stage 2 gpt-5 verdict · shows what news fired the trigger and how the LLM re-judged it

TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines simply reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.
TIME_BACKSTOP
stage 1 (0.0001$) NO_NOISE
NO_NOISE: The new headlines reiterate the existing information about the billionaire tax qualifying for the ballot without introducing new developments.

event timeline

ENTRY
{"side": "BUY_NO", "entry_price": 0.55, "size_usd": 250.0, "target_price": 0.615, "stop_price": 0.475, "broker": "paper"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.02, "yes_ask": 0.98, "yes_mid": 0.5, "yes_spread_pp": 96.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.02, "walk_top_size": 1000.0, "walk_filled_shares": 454.55, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.02, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.02, "side_bid": 0.02, "side_mid": 0.5, "fill_price": 0.02, "fill_shares": 454.55, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 454.55, "target_price": 0.615, "stop_price": 0.475, "entry_price": 0.55, "original_size_shares": 454.5454545454545, "fill_pnl_pct": -96.36, "fill_pnl_usd": -240.9091, "pnl_pct_mid": -9.09, "pnl_pct_top": -96.36, "trigger_vs_level_pp": -45.5, "fill_id": "b17e4333-596f-4e18-aa05-6b09f6867667"}
EXIT_SIGNAL
{"yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_mid": 0.435, "yes_spread_pp": 1.0, "walk_levels_used": 1, "walk_top_fill": 0.56, "walk_top_size": 1772.11, "walk_filled_shares": 454.55, "walk_unfilled_shares": 0.0, "walk_avg_fill": 0.56, "walk_slippage_pp": 0.0, "side_bid_top": 0.56, "side_bid": 0.56, "side_mid": 0.565, "fill_price": 0.56, "fill_shares": 454.55, "is_partial": false, "remaining_before": 454.55, "target_price": 0.615, "stop_price": 0.475, "entry_price": 0.55, "original_size_shares": 454.5454545454545, "fill_pnl_pct": 1.82, "fill_pnl_usd": 4.5455, "pnl_pct_mid": 2.73, "pnl_pct_top": 1.82, "trigger_vs_level_pp": null, "mfe_drift_pp": 1.26, "current_drift_pp": 1.0, "hours_held": 212.18, "fill_id": "b2c42700-d7d4-424d-a0d0-cfbae9a155d9"}